Angels facing jinx possibilities?

There are some givens with regard to California baseball:

* For the tenth year in a row (supposedly), the Padres claim to have it "right" this time.

* The Giants are likely to open another AARP chapter at AT&T Park this season.

* The Dodgers are focused on pitching quality again this season.

* And if you believe the "1,000 ways to..." brand of thinking, the Athletics are close to that number in terms of sheer roster redeployment.

This brings us to the Angels, who are hoping to dethrone those Athletics and win their first divisional title since 2003. Two key players, though, concern me: centerfielder Gary Matthews Jr., and SP Jered Weaver.

Both Matthews & Weaver were attention-grabbers last year, and you couldn't help but root for them as they found major league success; in Matthews' case, it was really heartwarming, as he finally showed what he could do given more than 200 at-bats.

But you always have to glance at Matthews' career before his breakout campaign of 2006, and you wonder why he was only a 200-at-bat guy before then. I would hope to see more of the same in 2007, and truly define '06 as a "breakout year" versus a "career year".

For if he slips back to the 2005 style of play, for instance, the Angels outfield looks like trouble. Garrett Anderson is getting no younger, and we may see platooning in his future. Vladimir Guerrero, meanwhile, is still scary with the stick, but his legs are going on him, and we could witness an eventual turn to DH for him to protect that bat speed.

The Angels don't suffer from the same age infection that last year's Giants squad did, but a look at outfield depth for the Angels is depressing: Juan Rivera as the backup, and his career looked much the same as Matthews', pre-2006.

Weaver, meanwhile, came in with a bang and looked more dominating than his older brother, Jeff, ever looked. He is a four-pitch pitcher who mixed his different pitches well in going 11-2 last year. Wisely, perhaps, he is billed as the #5 starter still, behind Colon, Escobar, Lackey and Ervin Santana. This may take some of the pressure off him to produce instant results, but the club is still leaning heavily on him nonetheless.

Colon, for one, is recovering from a bad rotator cuff. Escobar is not a true starter, as he has bounced around in his career. This is what makes a repeat of 2006 a near-must for Weaver. If it doesn't come through, the Angels will need that bullpen more than they might like to.

When two of a team's top names have the potential to place "2006 - career year" on top of a 2007 resume, hearts of Angels fans will need to cross those fingers and hope they mean "breakout" year... anything short of that might be a breakdown in the team's efforts to become the AL's dominant west-coast team.

Can Junior be counted on?

This seems to be an annual question for the Reds, because it is always an annual sight: Ken Griffey Jr... not at one hundred percent.

Though not perceived to be an injury bordering on breach of contract, Griffey broke his left hand while wrestling with his kids on a yacht in the Bahamas. Griffey is in the spring training complex getting the hand rehabbed, but now his pre-season hopes have been pushed back and delayed.

Only once in his seven-plus season tenure with Cincinnati has Griffey played in more than 128 games, after eclipsing the 140-games played mark with Seattle in seven of his eleven seasons there. Two players that come to mind that had such records are former outfielders Eric Davis and Fred Lynn.

The three have many similarities; dangerous hitters with power, and gifted outfielders in their prime. Davis was too tightly wound and was a muscle pull waiting to happen. Lynn's career was cut short by too many risky dives & leaps in the outfield. The injury bug seems to knock on Griffey's door every season, for one reason or another.

Give the Cincinnati fans credit for having forgiven Griffey his injury history; as we saw in 2005, when healthy, he could still be a 40-homer force. Whether he takes care of himself in the off-seasons is known to him alone and is his business, but when you are a key offensive cog in the Reds attack even after all these years, preventive maintenance is a must. With Wily Mo Pena long gone (to Boston last season), Griffey's clubhouse presence and power-wielding bat become more imperative if the Reds hope to catch the Cardinals in the NL Central.

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Can you believe some baseball writers actually came down to Lakeland (Fla) to see the Detroit Tigers' pitchers take fielding practice?

If they were expecting to see more kamikaze-like plays in the field, they were mistaken; practice came off as perfectly routine. The Tigers' defense was much better in 2006 than in years past, so to me, the cough-ups in the World Series were not due to a lack of talent. With a year of pressure and learning experiences behind them, I wouldn't expect such a practice to warrant media coverage. They will be just fine.

Foulke will know if it's time

The buzz around the Cleveland Indians camp early on is that reliever Keith Foulke, who left Boston to sign a $4 million contract, may in fact retire.

Since the 2004 World Series, Foulke has been beset with injuries that skyrocketed his ERA and left him without that closer's job that Jonathan Papelbon filled nicely last season. Foulke was seen as a nifty successor to Bob Wickman (now of Atlanta) who, when on, could still dominate hitters.

It's likely the pre-season plans had the Indians bullpen all sorted out with his acquisition. A pending retirement would leave the bullpen disorganized again, as they would likely have to promote someone from within. The Indians are still trying to work with a smart budget and can't give expensive contracts to everyone. Plus, rethinking strategy, even seven weeks prior to the start of the regular season, isn't comforting when you consider the competitive nature of the AL Central.

In a way, I would not be surprised if his injuries & ineffectiveness of late make him call it a career. His mechanics alarmed me when I saw him in the '04 World Series. The way he slings that right arm & doesn't drop it down while pitching just doesn't seem natural to me.

I only hope that in this day and age, where the money-grabbers make the headlines, that he walk away from the contract offer in its entirety. That would be ultimate thanks to a ballclub which was willing to chance him in a pivotal closer's role, in what should shape to be a pivotal season for the Tribe.

Too many farewell tours

With Spring Training starting today with the report of pitchers & catchers, we supposedly are left hanging over whether or not Roger Clemens will return for another season at age 45.

How many retirements or near-retirements has he ended up having since his initial farewell tour with the Yankees? Upon signing with Houston, I remember his elation at pitching near his home, with family much more convienently located. Clemens had a fantastic season in 2005, yet could not make up his mind to play last season until the end of May. Now in 2007, he still doesn't know if he's going to suit up again, mentioning something about "if someone (stubs) a toe, I might have to consider (playing again)."

This simply does not sound like a person that really wants to play. And perhaps he should end his own drama, and the drama of his fans, by simply saying so. There's nothing wrong with leaving the game on your own terms, even if you're at or near the top.

Clemens still has an amazing talent, has a frame built for the long haul, and still pumps that fastball to where few can hit it. But as he nears 340 victories, cements his status as the #2 strikeout king, and with the Astros not showing signs of recovering from last year's fall from grace, is there truly any motivation left in the tank? Perhaps after 24 seasons, it may be ripe time for him to retire and spend the time with the family, including watching a his son, a potential future star, continue to hone his talents.

But why he duped the Yankees in 2003 in saying he'd retire, only to land with Houston, is known only to him. I portrayed him as a person who couldn't make up his mind without dollar signs attached. Each preseason, his doubts about returning grow bigger & bigger.

His numbers will never diminish over time. But his personality will also be remembered, as with any good player. Please, Roger... either you "do" or you "don't" want in for 2007.

Cubs, Braves and revenues

Rambling thoughts on a Saturday:

* The Yankees long ago made popular the notion that superstar players will yield superstar results. No team can reach into the post-season effectively without a superstar guiding the way.

I would consider Alfonso Soriano a star in his own mind & effectiveness. Whether he is finally the answer to the Chicago Cubs' dream of a World Series remains to be seen. As talented as he is, he couldn't keep Washington from falling back below .500 last season, simply because he didn't have a supporting cast worth mentioning. Who do the Cubs have to help him carry the team? I really don't think Mark Prior & Kerry Wood are worth relying on much anymore as I don't see a magical end to their arm woes of the past three seasons.

Remember this from a Detroit standpoint: Frank Thomas and Alex Rodriguez carried their teams during the regular season, but who stopped them cold but the Tigers, a team that relied on everyone evenly.

* Will the Braves come back to form and begin winning division titles again? I am one for league parity (yes, a dynasty hater), but you cannot forget the fact that their pitching could have been on a one-year low ebb last season. Credit the change in pitching coaches from Leo Mazzone to Roger McDowell for much of that mess, plus a never-ending injury bug. But the Braves have proven to have ample resources in their farm system time and again. Atlanta is still a favored spot for players to be traded to or sign with, and this year may validate that fact even more.

* Wasn't it just ten years ago that we thought a $100 million team payroll was ridiculous? Now the Yankees are worth over $200 million in paychecks alone. Yet again, they didn't make the World Series. In fact, look at some of the participants from the past few years:

The Tigers. The Marlins. The Astros. Teams you wouldn't find leading a payroll list of having a $15 million player anchoring their roster, have found their way onto the fall stage. Commissioner Bud Selig has said for a few years now that revenue sharing is working. Most people scoff at that, but if you look deep into it and see it for what it's worth, he has a point.

So the TV ratings tanked last season - big deal. The hometown fans on both sides got to see great post-season action and fans were proud of both teams. It's still the fan who walks through the turnstile that matters most to the atmosphere of the ballpark - and consequently the mood of the players between the lines.

Feel-good moments abounded, in other words... and you didn't have to pay a U.S. Mint to see it.

Punish or reward consistently

Who better to grace Cooperstown this summer than Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn, two hard-working ballplayers who defined their generation?

The watering down of pitching talent aside, Gwynn showed the world exactly how to hit successfully. The first person to get Gwynn to do a hitting video will be the luckiest person out there. And Ripken gave everyone, baseball or not, incentive to go that extra mile to "be there" every day, whether it be to our workplace or even to our homes to keep family together.

But much fuss was made in the press, both local and national, about Mark McGwire finishing so low in the balloting in eligible year one. And if I can pull an "Amazing Kreskin", it will be safe to predict that Barry Bonds will face the same situation five years after he retires.

We know the story surrounding those two, as well as Rafael Palmeiro, very well. Questions have been raised about how much these players' pasts should be factored into Hall Of Fame consideration. Are we really thinking too much into their pasts while overlooking the sheer importance of their numbers?

I have no honest opinion on the subject, other than to say this: treat all questionable ballplayers the same. Either vote them in, or ignore all of them in order to "keep the dirt" out of the Hall.

People will say that McGwire's refusal to testify in the steroid trial shouldn't keep him out of the Hall. Then why aren't Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson in the Hall already? Bonds could pass Hank Aaron in the homer race this year; don't numbers enough qualify you for the spot no matter your personal history? Personally, I believe 4,256 lifetime hits are more impressive than being the all-time dinger leader.

But if there's truly no effort to put Rose & Jackson in the Hall Of Fame, perhaps there should be NO debate as to whether McGwire, Bonds, Palmerio should be in there too... that answer should be a definite "no" in that case, too. Don't even attempt to make a case for Sammy Sosa in a few years either, especially if those in front of him don't make it.

You either eliminate all the dirt and let all the Hall Of Famers have clean, personal resumes, or you just admit that mistakes have been made through time (we are all human, after all), and recognize them for their outstanding in-game talents who did put fans in their seats to see milestones accomplished.

It doesn't matter which way the thinking goes, but that thinking has to go across the board - an all-or-nothing proposition. Don't elect one without at least thinking about the others who worked as hard, and ended up as human as those now under the microscopes of the press.

America's pasttime should be fair, and diverse as well.